Gideon Polya11 maart 2008 – 15:24

Excess death (avoidable death) is estimated as the difference between actual deaths and deaths expected for a peaceful, decently-run country with the same demographics (for details see “Body Count. Global avoidable mortality since 1950”(1). Excess deaths can be either VIOLENT (from bombs or bullets) or NON-VIOLENT (from deprivation and deprivation-exacerbated disease). For brutally US-occupied Iraq the base-line comparison for non-violent deaths is conveniently made with its impoverished and peaceful but demographically similar neighbours Iraq and Jordan.

Authoritative estimates of NON-VIOLENT post-invasion excess deaths in Occupied Iraq (March 2003-March 2008) are of 0.77 million (2) and of 0.87 million (3).From various estimates of violent deaths in Iraq the average violence-related death rate can be used to calculated VIOLENT deaths in the 5-year period March 2003 - March 2008:

(a) the “media report”-based Iraq Body Count upper estimate of 88,000 (March 2003 - January 2008 (4)) translates to 90,000 /5 years.
(b) the WHO-Iraqi Puppet Government estimate of 151,000 (March 2003 - June 2006 (5)i) translates to 201,000/5 years.
(c) the top US Johns Hopkins University estimate of 600,000 (March 2003-July 2006 (6), translates to = 909,000/5 years.
(d) the expert UK ORB polling company estimate of 1,220,000 (March 2003-September 2007(7)).translates to 1,360,000 /5 years.

Taking authoritative estimates (c) and (d) for 5-year violent deaths of 0.91 million and 1.36 million, respectively, and estimates of 5-year non-violent excess deaths of 0.77 - 0.87 million, we can estimate that post-invasion violent plus non-violent excess deaths in Occupied Iraq will total 1.7 - 2.2 million as of March 2008. In addition one can estimate 1.7 million Sanctions excess deaths (1990-2003), 1.2 million under-5 infant deaths under Sanctions, 0.2 million Iraqi Gulf War deaths, 0.6 million post-invasion infant deaths (UNICEF) and 4.5 million Iraqi refugees (UNHCR). This is an Iraqi Holocaust and an Iraqi Genocide as defined by the UN Genocide Convention.

Gideon Polya
retired senior biochemist, author on biochemistry and global avoidable mortality - Australia

Bericht aan de Bevolking is een initiatief van Het beschrijf, in samenwerking met het B/Russell/s Tribunal. Een aantal auteurs van deze teksten treedt ook aan op de Literaire Wake n.a.v. 5 jaar oorlog in Irak, op woensdag 19 maart van 20 u. tot 24 u. in Literatuurhuis Passa Porta, A. Dansaertstraat 46, 1000 Brussel. Zie www.passaporta.be

Link naar het overzicht